FN2 Research
Markets, explained.
Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.
Three Flashes on the Horizon: Iran, Sanctions, and the Yen
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire built on an unconfirmed deal, a Senate sanctions bill authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian energy buyers, and an unprecedented joint US-Japan yen intervention — three escalation signals converging while equity markets rally on AI earnings.
The AI Capex Litmus Test: Microsoft and Amazon Pass, Meta and Apple Don't
Microsoft's record $450B single-day rally and Amazon's first $200B quarter set a new proof-of-demand standard for AI capex, while Meta and Apple were punished. A 9-3 FOMC split and sticky inflation frame the week ahead.
IPOs Return, a Hedge Fund Unwinds, and the Fed's Liquidity Buffer Hits Zero
Dual Chokepoints: Why Oil's Relief Trade Is a Pause, Not Peace
Trump's cancellation of Iran strikes cooled oil prices, but Hormuz at 30% capacity and Houthi threats to the Red Sea leave 5 million bpd exposed across two chokepoints. The market priced a pause — not peace.
The AI Monetization Split: AMZN Soars 15%, AAPL Slides 7% as Big Tech Earnings Diverge
Big Tech earnings split the market: Amazon's AWS grew 37% and Microsoft's Azure crossed $100B, while Apple's supply-chain guidance miss sent shares down 7.4% and Meta's AI spending ate nearly all its free cash flow — all against a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents.
The IPO Window Stays Open, but the Plumbing Beneath It Is Being Rewritten
August opens with four IPOs led by three biotechs and a California bank, while SpaceX faces its first earnings and a 911-million-share lock-up expiration. Meanwhile, the SEC's proposal to rescind Reg NMS Rules 611 and 610(e) could reshape order routing and execution for every U.S. stock.
Hormuz Chokepoint Collapse Reprices the Geopolitical Risk Floor
The July 28 collapse of the US-Iran diplomatic pause has halved Hormuz tanker traffic, lifted Brent crude above $90, and exposed structural refining capacity shortages that Exxon and Chevron say will keep fuel prices elevated regardless of where oil settles.
The AI Capex Divide: Amazon Validates, Apple Warns, and the Fed's Hawks Dissent
August Opens With a Biotech IPO Wave — But SpaceX's Billion-Share Unlock Is the Real Liquidity Test
August's IPO calendar features three biotechs and a California bank, but the market-structure event of the month is SpaceX's staggered lockup release — starting with 911 million shares on August 6 — arriving against a backdrop of thinning order book depth, a depleted ON RRP facility, and a fractured 9-3 FOMC vote.
Dual Chokepoint: Hormuz Near Shutdown, Red Sea Under Threat as US-Iran War Enters Critical Weekend
Brent holds above $90 with Hormuz near shut and Houthis threatening Saudi Arabia's Red Sea workaround. A Senate bill would add 100% tariffs on China and India for Russian oil as the Iran and Ukraine wars begin to converge across six seas.
AI Capex on Trial: The Week That Separated Signal from Spend — And a Fed That Couldn't Agree
The final week of July split hyperscalers into those who proved AI demand and those who didn't. Microsoft and Amazon passed the test; Meta and Apple didn't. Meanwhile, a 9-3 Fed hold with three hawkish dissents left long yields climbing and markets guessing about September.
IPO Window Opens as Lockup Flood and Rule Rewrite Reshape Equity Plumbing
August 2026 brings an active IPO calendar, a staggering SpaceX lockup supply overhang, and an SEC proposal to rescind Reg NMS's trade-through rule — three forces converging on equity market structure at once.