FN2 Research

Markets, explained.

Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.

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Market Structure · IPO · SpaceX · SEC · Regulation NMS · LSE · Lockup Expiry · 24-Hour Trading

A Market-Structure Inflection: Rule 611, the SpaceX Lockup Wall, and the 24-Hour Race

The SEC's proposed Rule 611 rescission, SpaceX's $117B+ lockup expiry on August 6, and the LSE's 24/5 trading venue all arrive within the same quarter — the most concentrated burst of market-structure change in years.

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Geopolitics · Oil · Middle East · Energy · Red Sea · Strait of Hormuz · Shipping

Two Chokepoints, One Oil Market: Houthi Blockade Traps Saudi Crude as Brent Breaks $95

Houthi threats to Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have opened a second front in the Iran war's energy crisis, sending Brent past $95 and pressuring equities. The question now is whether Saudi Arabia's pipeline workaround survives.

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AI · Earnings · Macro · Oil · Semiconductors · Megacap Tech

Alphabet's First Cash Burn in Two Decades Meets an Oil Tape on the Boil

Alphabet posted negative free cash flow for the first time since going public as AI capex was raised to $205B. Brent crude hit $94 on the 11th night of US strikes on Iran and a new Houthi Red Sea front. The real megacap stress test begins next week.

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Market Structure · IPO · Regulation · SEC · SpaceX · Biotech · Buybacks · Regulation NMS

Three Rewires Hit U.S. Equity Markets at Once

The SEC's proposed rescission of Reg NMS Rules 611 and 610(e), overnight trading price bands, and SpaceX's staggered $123 billion lockup release are converging in a six-week window. Meanwhile, Csquare priced below range and biotech secondaries topped half a billion dollars in a single week.

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Geopolitics · Oil · Middle East · Energy · Tariffs · Market Risk · Iran · Houthis

Two Chokepoints, One Oil Market: How Houthi Blockade and Hormuz Escalation Are Reshaping Risk

With Brent crude above $95 and tankers U-turning in the Red Sea, the Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia has turned a single-chokepoint crisis into a two-chokepoint problem. Energy stocks are surging, tech is slipping, and new Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries add a second layer of risk.

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Earnings · AI · Semiconductors · Energy · Macro

Alphabet's $45B Capex Reckoning Meets an Oil Tape on Edge

The Nasdaq led Wall Street lower on Wednesday as Alphabet's blowout quarter came with negative free cash flow and a promise of even higher 2027 capex, Tesla missed on EPS with a $1.1B cash burn, and oil surged toward $95 on the 11th night of Iran strikes.

A rocket launching with smoke and flames, reflected in calm water and framed by trees
IPO · Market Structure · SpaceX · AI Infrastructure · Liquidity · Lockup Expiration

SpaceX's $116 Billion Lockup Test: Why August 6 Could Reshape the 2026 IPO Market

Q2 2026 was the largest IPO quarter on record at $104.8B, led by SpaceX's $75B debut. But with 911.5 million SpaceX shares unlocking August 6, AI infrastructure IPOs stumbling, and liquidity depth contracting 23% year-to-date, the market faces its most significant supply test of the year.

A container ship navigating through a narrow strait between landmasses, illustrating critical maritime oil transit routes.
Geopolitics · Oil · Energy · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Red Sea · Bab al-Mandeb · Tariffs

Dual Chokepoint: Why the Iran War Just Hit Oil Markets From Both Sides

Brent crude surged past $95 a barrel as the US-Iran war opened a second front at the Bab al-Mandeb strait while Hormuz traffic collapsed to single digits. With 60-country tariffs also looming, the dual chokepoint crisis is now pressuring yields, tech earnings, and the Fed's next move.

Aerial view of a large oil tanker ship on the open ocean at sunset.

Markets Mark Time Between Oil's Surge and Big Tech's Earnings Test

Modern office building under a clear blue sky in Washington, D.C., representing the seat of US financial regulation.

Lockup Cliffs, a Reg NMS Rewrite, and a Korean Warning: Market Structure at a Crossroads

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Geopolitics · Oil · Iran · Tariffs · Taiwan · Energy · Defense · Trade

Three Chokepoints, One Trading Day: Oil, Tariffs, and the Taiwan Strait Collide

Brent crude surged to a six-week high near $95 as US-Iran strikes entered their 11th night with no diplomatic offramp, five Saudi tankers reversed course in the Red Sea, and Trump threatened to bomb Iranian infrastructure for every attack on shipping. Simultaneously, a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods took effect, phased generic-drug tariffs of up to 200% were announced, and Chinese helicopters crossed the Taiwan Strait median line for the first time — a three-front escalation in a single session.

Macro close-up of electronic capacitors and resistors on a dark green circuit board showing fine component details
Semiconductors · Big Tech Earnings · Oil · Federal Reserve · AI · Market Snapshot

Semis Are the Clean Tell as Big Tech De-Risks Into Earnings Night

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF's 1.2% intraday gain is offsetting weakness in META and MSFT ahead of Alphabet and Tesla's after-close reports. Brent above $91 and a 46.5% implied probability of a July Fed hike form the backdrop the chip rally is running against.